Palestinian Perspectives on the Impediments Facing Israeli-Palestinian Conflict Resolution: Mapping of Palestinian Opinion Leaders

Key Findings: Geopolitical Factors

Overwhelming Pessimism: Pessimism regarding global conditions, including US/Israel hegemony, the Russia-Ukraine war, and the changing roles of China and Russia. New digital/virtual realities influencing young people.

Regional Factors:

• Instability, insecurity, and economic issues in Arab countries, diverting attention from the Palestinian cause.
• Normalization with Israel and shifts in relations with Turkey and Iran.

Israeli Factors:

• Israel's strengths in technology, agriculture, and security industries, and foster global interests.
• Rise of the religious-secular right-wing coalition and settler population's political influence.

• Power Dynamics:

  • Israel's dominating influence in the conflict.
  • References to occupation, control, and violations.
  • Limited mention of Israeli peace groups.

  Economic Factors:

  • Israel's private sector control over Palestine's resources.
  • Normalization attempts for economic benefits.

  • Israeli side	# of mentions	Palestinian side	# of mentions
    Occupation (colonial/colonialism)	2295	Resistance	697
    Force/power/militarism	707	Struggle	540
    Use of non-militaristic control tools (technology, civil society, etc.)	119	Armed resistance	143
    Judaization/Jewish/Jews	636	Steadfastness	92
    Fascism/apartheid/extreme/racist/discriminatory	91	Sacrifice/unjust/suffering/ violated/killing/imprisonment/ injury/ demolition/ strike/land expropriation/ movement restriction	435

 

The Palestinian Authority (PA):

• Universally disappointing and criticized by participants.
• Viewed as a tool for Israel to shift service responsibilities to Palestinians while solidifying control.

The Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO):

• Diminished role and influence acknowledged by all.
• Emphasis on the need for extensive reform to restore leadership status.

Hamas:

• Diverse views on Hamas.
• Some see it as a leader of resistance against the Occupation and a force for change.
• Others view it as entrenching division, serving regional powers, or relying on PA for Gaza services while investing in military or religious influence.

 

Actor	# of mentions
PLO/historic leadership	1316
PA	923
Hamas	750
Fateh	428
Youth/movement	204
Palestinian left	170
Youth militant groups (Jenin/Nablus)	160
Religious groups (Palestinian)	136
Islamic Jihad	130
Civil society/NGOs	102
Other leftist groups (DFLP)	65

Regional Actors:

Prominent mentions of Iran, Egypt, and Gulf monarchies.

Iran:

Noted for ties to Palestinian resistance groups and confrontational stance toward Israel.

Egypt:

Relevant due to the strong influence in Gaza, mediating truces between Palestinian factions and Israel.

Gulf countries:

Financial and internal political role vs. normalization with Israel.

Prominent Global Actor:

• The US was frequently mentioned.
• Highlighted for providing extensive military, financial, and diplomatic support to Israel in maintaining the Occupation.
• Credibility questioned in the US’s role as a mediator.

Perceptions of the UN:

• Mixed views on the UN and its agencies.
• Positive appraisal for recognizing Palestine in UN bodies and the role of the ICJ.
• Criticism regarding the UN's perceived harm against Palestine due to the influence of the US and Israel.

Hegemonic Control System (Centaur): Israel's strategy is summarized as 'Maximum Colonization with Maximum Normalization.'

 

Actors & Influencing Parties (International)

Indicative wording	# of mentions
USA	612
EU/West/countries	354
UN/international institutions	170
Russia/Ukraine	204
China	124

 

Israel’s Approach

Maximum Colonization with Maximum Normalization

Hegemonic Control System (Centaur): Israel's strategy is summarized as 'Maximum Colonization with Maximum Normalization.'

Challenges Faced by Palestinians

Palestinian Authority (PA):

• PA is reduced to an entity providing time and space for occupation.
• Identity is shaped by financial and political impotence.
• Conflict transformed into a struggle for basic needs.

Internal Division and Weakness:

• Decades-long split between Fateh and Hamas.
• Geographic fragmentation and limited political vision, economic challenges, and corruption weaken the struggle.
  

Regional and International Factors:

• Normalization between Arab and Muslim countries.
• Diminishing donor aid due to other regional crises.
• Lack of allies or support.

International Pressures:

• Rise of right-wing parties in the US and Europe.
• Impact of the Ukraine War and COVID pandemic on assistance.
• Social and Political Developments:
• Erosion of national consciousness due to globalization and social media.
  

 

 

Majority Shift:

Most leaders no longer consider the two-state solution plausible, though some hold onto the possibility of its revival.

Alternative Solutions

One-State Solution:

• Leaders are generally unenthusiastic due to Zionist supremacist character.
• Belief that extant factors may lead to a one-state outcome regardless of preferences.

Concern for Cantonized System:

• The greatest concern among leaders is the consecration of the current cantonized system with supreme Israeli control and limited Palestinian autonomy.

 

Final Status Issues

Pressing Threat:

Land grabbing by settlements was highlighted as the most pressing threat, undermining the two-state solution.

Jerusalem:

Jerusalem is mentioned as the second most critical final status issue.

Refugees:

Refugees discussed, with strong support for full implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 194.

 

Summary of Opportunities and Future Prospects

Bleak analysis of the conditions around final-status issues; yet optimism continues among a minority

A large majority of leaders surveyed have a bleak view of the future, with 75 percent believing that Palestinian society is headed in the wrong direction

 

A Nationalist Agenda Continues to be at the Core of the Discourse;
Even with the Rise of Islamist Agendas

Indicative wording	# of mentions
Palestine/Palestinian	7362
Nationalism/nationalist (Palestinian)/national identity	1241
Historic Palestine/1948/occupied Palestine (now Israel)	391
Islam/Islamic/Islamist	238
Arabism/Pan Arabism	17
Liberalism/new liberalism	41
Secularism	41

Sovereignty over Land as Core to all Other Issues

Type of state	# of mentions
Two-state solution/independent state 1967	228
Historic Palestine as the ultimate solution	146
Self-Governance regime	31
One-state solution	27
Confederation (Egypt/Jordan)	10
Bi-national state	7
Confederation with Israel	6